Analysis of the political and economic state of Russia in the context of the conflict with Ukraine and the pressure of sanctions.

Analysis of the political and economic state of Russia in the context of the conflict with Ukraine and the pressure of sanctions.

First, I will formulate theses about the impasse of sense-building in Russia.

1. The thesis that we are in a position of a long and endless struggle, where there will be no end, kills every reason to go out on values, on what we really want. This is the problem of Russian sense-building at the present stage. This is what a lot of my articles about the meaning-building of Russia are devoted to.

2. It is necessary to draw more clearly what we are going to and what we need to achieve. Otherwise, everything he says leads to a dead end.

3. There can be no naked, eternal struggle between value and the basis of meaning. The struggle is only a temporary tool.

4. And maybe the value of Russia is the eternal struggle, the eternal anticipation of life, but not life itself. We just need to remember that someone is dying, and someone, thanks to this death, retains their capital and values, and only uses the idea of fighting for their narrow benefits, but not for the good of the people.

It must be recognized that the details of the Russian budget are classified at the present time. This is done so that no one draws certain conclusions fr om the available figures and does not disrupt the psychotherapy session. And the main psychotherapist in Russia is now my colleague Elvira Nabiullina.

Already according to some expert economists, when falsifying reports, close attention should be paid to secondary indicators so that they are combined with each other and with those that are the main ones, otherwise the fact of forgery itself comes out. So it is here: the details can be classified, but conclusions can be drawn fr om the general contours. And these conclusions are disappointing: a very large hole has appeared in the Russian budget.

The time comes and different forecasts are forgotten as something unrelated to reality.

What should I pay attention to?

On sudden economic triggers. They are usually unexpected.

Fr om my point of view, these are banks.

The banking crisis may begin:

1. In case of a violation of the balance between responsible depositors and adventurous borrowers (representatives of debt slavery).

2. With the protest behavior of currency overstayers, whose funds are now frozen, but apparently used.

The Central Bank as a center for psychotherapy of Russians.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation described the scenario of a global crisis in the economy. It is presented in the draft report on the main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2023 and the period 2024 and 2025.

The "Global Crisis" scenario assumes increased fragmentation in the global economy. Trade between the countries will increasingly be concentrated in regional blocks, while the states themselves will begin to seek to localize production, the document says.

"Against this background, in the scenario at the beginning of 2023, two risks are expected to be realized simultaneously, reinforcing each other," the Central Bank notes.

So, firstly, persistently high inflation in the largest economies may require a more drastic and substantial tightening of monetary policy in these countries. This will lead to a recession in the largest economies. In emerging market countries, especially in those wh ere there is a large amount of external debt, the stability of the financial situation may significantly decrease due to an increase in external rates.

Secondly, this scenario assumes an increase in geopolitical tensions in the world, including the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian economy. The combination of such events may increase imbalances in the global economy and lead to a new global financial and economic crisis comparable in scale to the crisis of 2007-2008.

"For the Russian economy, the implementation of the global crisis, which reduces external demand, simultaneously with the deterioration of the geopolitical background, which reduces prices and export volumes, will significantly complicate structural adjustment and adaptation to new conditions. GDP will shrink more in 2023 than in 2022. In 2024, the decline will continue, and only in 2025, a small increase is possible - about 1 percent," the regulator explains.

1. Who is the specific author of these scripts? This is a responsible product and there should be responsible persons, especially since this scenario has been replicated. It is simply incorrect to say that this is the development of the Central Bank without references to the authors and the methods used.

2. What are the motives for such publicity and circulation of these scenarios? Preparing Russians for what?

3. Most likely, these scenarios are not the product of scientific analysis. This is a continuation of psychotherapy, but by other methods.

3. Apparently, the psychotherapeutic stage of the Russian economy and the economic artistry of indicators and artificiality are gradually ceasing. Sooner or later, Russians must be prepared for critical economic scenarios. Moreover, there is no reason yet that sanctions will stop or become a balm for our economy.

Adventurous representatives of Russian debt slavery.

It is no longer possible to recover all the debts of citizens in the sphere of housing and communal services in Russia. This opinion was voiced by Deputy Head of the Ministry of Construction Alexey Yeresko.

According to him, the amount of debt in the industry has already reached 1.4 trillion rubles. "The figure is very large. But, in my opinion, it is not worth relying on it, it does not reflect the real picture. There is a large part of the debts accumulated over many years for enterprises, many of which no longer exist, for real estate objects that no longer exist. These are debts of both residents to resource-supplying organizations and enterprises. It is no longer possible to recover them in full," Yeresko said.

At the same time, the official did not specify what share of this amount is non-refundable debts and what is planned to be done with them.

Here are my thoughts on this.

A significant adventurous social stratum has already formed in Russia, enjoying a responsible social stratum. In essence, responsible depositors and taxpayers are paying off the debts of irresponsible borrowers and representatives of adventurous and irresponsible debt slavery.

There are representatives of debt slavery who experience stress, and there are those who do not experience it, expecting that they will be mowed down. By the way, according to statistics, the percentage of penalties for non-payment of debts is very low. And the internal Russian policy, alas, is aimed at ensuring that one part of responsible Russians pays for the needs of another part of irresponsible Russians.

Even in every house there are residents whose accommodation is paid for, after all, by neighbors. Although, sometimes, such parasites have the means. The installation to use inadequate financial resources in Russia has intensified!

Therefore, the above information will only please the adventurous part of the Russian representatives of debt slavery.

Russia has so far succeeded in digitalizing taxes and levies. And Prime Minister Mishustin must break out of this former limitation into a different digitalization.

I didn't get the promised sausages flying into the window! Eh!

"They will draw anything under subsidies!" - artificiality and artistic creativity have been in the Russian economy before. But now, due to sanctions, this artistic creativity has reached a radical format.

The gap between the prestigious sound of education and its real content.

It turns out that even serious Moscow universities did not take applicants for engineering specialties.

Most likely, in the near future we will see, unfortunately, the negative effect of the first and second sessions. Today, the admission campaign in Russian universities has officially ended, but some educational institutions are still looking for state employees. Moreover, most of the available places are just in the technical areas that were a priority for Moscow.

Here are my thoughts on this:

1. There is a big gap between the sonorous, prestigious declared engineering specialties and the real content of this education and the teachers-masters of these specialties.

2. Therefore, the demand for engineering specialties is decreasing despite the problems with specialists who have to come to manufacturing enterprises that need personnel.

3. In addition, there are no manufacturing enterprises themselves because of the former pogrom caused by Russian economic policy.

4. Chatter, appeals, promises to activate import substitution, which have intensified due to sanctions, production enterprises cannot quickly save. Therefore, applicants really react to the proposals of universities, and not on the basis of agitation and appeals.

How to objectively perceive the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Peskov?

My analysis showed the following:

1. The value of Peskov's statements should consist in reflecting the opinion of the President of the Russian Federation if this opinion is not officially expressed.

2. Unfortunately, sometimes Peskov's statements do not reflect the opinion of the President of the Russian Federation, but in society this statement is perceived as the opinion of the President of the Russian Federation. Apparently, this is how information samples are made and the reaction of Russians to information allegedly expressing the opinion of the President of the Russian Federation is studied. And only then, after a positive reaction from society, the President of the Russian Federation voices this information as his opinion.

3. If the reaction of Russians to such an information flow is negative, then the reaction of the President of the Russian Federation is immediate, they say, Peskov is carrying a blizzard.

4. It is obvious that Peskov's own opinion about anything, especially independent of the opinion of the President of the Russian Federation, has no value, since he is just a press secretary, not an expert analyst or an official who decides and makes various responsible decisions.

Therefore, readers need to learn how to correctly perceive Peskov. And journalists need to carefully build their speculations about the President of the Russian Federation based on Peskov's statements.

Thus, what is more important is not what Peskov's statement is about, but what it is being made for, and what kind of public reaction to this statement takes place. And only then, the layman should really wait for the official statement of the President of the Russian Federation.

Marina Ovsyannikova, the former editor of Channel One, was searched in the morning in a criminal case about fakes about the army, her lawyer Dmitry Zakharov said on the social network.

According to him, the search takes place in the case of the public dissemination of deliberately false information about the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (Article 207.3 of the Criminal Code). The defender clarified that the case was initiated in the main investigative department of the TFR. The security forces did not give the journalist the opportunity to wait for a lawyer and began the search without him, Zakharov claims.

Earlier, Ovsyannikova was fined twice under an administrative article on discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

Here are my thoughts on this.

I believe that decent professional TV presenters should work in the Vremya TV program when covering everything that is happening around Ukraine right now.

The TV program "Time" with the participation of Ekaterina Andreeva, who quickly chatters with ignoring semantic groups and intonations, thereby distorting the meanings of texts - this is a big problem of the First TV channel. Errors, defects, unnecessary pauses, lack of ability to work with a teleprompter. This is disrespectful to Russian viewers. In fact, this is a manifestation of the attitude of the authorities to the people. Managers, colleagues and employees of this TV program are tolerant of this.

And the fact that on the responsible main TV channel of the authorities it turned out that there are people who are against the Russian government is a flaw! The power channel should monitor the political views and worldview of employees.

That's why he is the channel of power. There was no such problem in the USSR.

But I really want there to be TV channels in Russia without censorship of the authorities. Alas! These times are going away or gone. The foreign policy situation and national security require this.

Ukraine as a puppet has no motivation of its own.

Ukraine has no motivation to resume negotiations with Moscow, as this would mean a victory for Russia. Such a statement in an interview with the Ukrainian edition "Babel" was made by the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak.

Since some time, Ukraine has not had its own motivation, as any puppet does not have it. This is fundamental, according to the psychology of manipulation!

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger told The Wall Street Journal that Washington rejected traditional diplomacy and, in the absence of a great leader, led the world to the abyss of war over Ukraine and Taiwan. The former Secretary of State also urged colleagues from the White House not to escalate tensions.

Here are my thoughts on this.

1. I wonder who has more nonsense and tautology in their statements Kissinger or Medinsky?

Compare. Here are two statements.

Medinsky: "We went through all the agenda items in detail, found some points on which we can predict common positions." In fact, it's about nothing, in terms of the productivity of negotiations. And time has shown it.

Kissinger: "It is necessary to recognize restrictions on the use of one's own forces against phenomena that will destroy stability in the world."

Of course, Kissinger and Medinsky are inferior

in empty words and tautology to Mikhail Gorbachev, who has a more powerful collection on this subject. I refer everyone to my monograph "Illusionism of Personality" (1997) and the book "Encyclopedia of Bluff" (1995).

2. So far, the US expansionist machine cannot be stopped. Why? Because it is a mindless machine of desires and passions. It is possible to sober up the USA, but time and approaches are needed. The world and reality will be sobering. The most important thing is that this sobering up does not happen, thanks to the uncontrollable elements and catastrophe!

Reality, if you don't notice it, will hit you unexpectedly and in the back of the head!

In the future, NATO countries can be expected to justify any use of nuclear weapons. This opinion was voiced by Deputy Head of the Russian delegation Andrey Belousov at the Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

He pointed to the final consolidation of the status of a nuclear military-political bloc for NATO, "which is directly spelled out in the final declaration of the Madrid summit of the alliance."

Moreover, one of the NATO member countries already has a double experience of using nuclear weapons on the territory of Japan. Traditional attitudes are difficult to etch, especially when an international subject has megalomania and is striving for world expansion and the necessary globalism.

The world is more objectively aware of the sources of danger to the world coming from the United States. In connection with the sanctions, there is a growing number of powerful and responsible experts abroad who support Russia and objectively assess the United States as a source of danger.

The international image of the United States has been thoroughly transformed in the last six months and not for the best for this country.

The US made a mistake when it tried to push NATO to Russia's borders. This opinion was expressed by Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters.

"I will not take one side or the other here, although I have studied the issue and believe that it was a huge mistake on the part of the Americans to try to push NATO to the very border of Russia," he said.

Here are my thoughts on this.

1. This is not a mistake, but a manifestation of the expansionist nature of the United States. The entity is not corrected. The essence disappears when the subject containing this essence disappears

2. The essence of the United States has not changed and was clearly manifested in tolerance for some fascist leaders who were hiding in the United States. There is a big gap between the attitude of the USSR to German fascism and the attitude of the USA to this evil. The USA did not want the victory of the socialist camp and hoped that Hitler would bury Soviet socialism. The USA watched these funerals, but then, when our victorious turning point occurred, the Americans began to help the USSR, in order to subsequently enter into the process of dividing Europe and the World, so as not to give the will for the USSR. And yet the socialist camp has expanded. A comecon was formed. It was an achievement. That's when the fight between the United States and Russia began. NATO was formed. And to this day it continues. We conceded to the USA. SAV disappeared.

This is the essence of the USA. The United States does not accept any adjustments to its world policy. This is no longer a short-sighted naive Napoleonic or Hitlerite expansion, this is a globally far-sighted economic and political expansion of the United States with the help of NATO. Expansionist the essence of fascist Germany and the USA are the same. The USA shows this essence cultured and disguised.

Meanwhile, Ukraine damages as if it built itself.

As a result of the shelling of the Zaporozhye NPP (ZAES) by the Ukrainian military, the equipment of the spray pools of the cooling system of nuclear reactors was damaged. This was announced by Mikhail Mizintsev, head of the National Defense Management Center of the Russian Federation. At the same time, he noted that the important infrastructure at the facility is not affected.

"On August 11, units of the 44th Artillery Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant from the village of Nikopol from 152-mm guns. As a result of the strikes, the thermal power plant for its own needs and the equipment of the spray pools of the cooling system of nuclear reactors were partially damaged," he said (quoted by Interfax).

Ukrainians damage it as if they built it themselves. All these are the fruits of the USSR! Donbass was also built by Soviet people. In the Tatar culture there are even songs about the Donbass and Tatars who took part in the construction in the Donbass.

The painful process of the former regions of the USSR is slowly going on. These attacks in history, starting with the Belovezhskaya Agreement, will be remembered with pain. What they did to the USSR. According to statistics, most residents of the former USSR are worried about the collapse of the USSR. All that is happening now is an attack that was delayed in 1991. The West and the USA took advantage of all this.

Yeltsin, out of despair and alcoholism, spat on everything and reported to the United States. Gorbachev must express his confession and guilt. What Gorbachev expressed is not that fault.

Do we need a world wh ere there will be no Russia?

Switzerland is ready to represent, at the request of Ukraine, its diplomatic interests in Russia if Moscow agrees. This was announced by the official representative of the Swiss Foreign Ministry Pierre Alain Elchinger.

"Ukraine wanted Switzerland to assume the mandate of the patronizing power in Russia. The relevant negotiations have been completed," TASS quoted the official representative as saying.

This is how cunningly the West projects its influence on Russia and claims on the past capitals of the USSR. Stalin is probably turning over in his grave!

What does Ukraine have to do with it? In the future, these are disguised and indirect claims for the use of the USSR's capital. And the West and the Hegemon want to use Ukraine in the future as a spoon for eating the natural resources and energy of Russia. Russia will not allow this. The bets are made. Do we need a world wh ere there will be no Russia? Everyone answers this question differently. The keyword "Fatherland"

- that's what's important!

It is striking how, in just a few months, Europe and the United States have lost their reputational capital. Their show-offs are over. It's hard to say what will happen to Russia. But the former greatness of the USA and Europe will not be for a long time!

Biden, as a world leader in dealing with emptiness and empty space, as well as as the leader of a country that creates green pacifiers, is as always symbolic in his manifestations.

"The main Ukrainian clown proposed to "call to account the entire population of Russia." - the question is, will the one who supervised the intelligence and preventive work in Russia to prevent such clowns from coming to power in Ukraine be responsible? How did Russia allow this? Why did Russia give freedom after 2014 to turn our neighbor into a prostitute of NATO?

If the work to prevent clowns had been done earlier, then there would not be those problems that now have to be redeemed with blood.

The global projects of the Hegemon are utopian for the world, as they are the basis of the culture of catastrophe. This has long been written by leading Western philosophers (French postmodernists, etc.).

Therefore, the new world order that is coming will be a balm and prevention from disaster.

And again, Russia is raking with its backbone the Hitler-Napaleonic Evil of those who are engaged in world expansion.

The expression of the Hegemon is the same, only disguised taking into account the negative experience of Hitler. This is a dummy world expansion with a combination of military and political influence.

Look: «Film director of brain» (2015) - feature film (filmmaker Ramil Garifullin):


Associate Professor of the Department of Pedagogical Psychology of the Institute of Psychology and Education of Kazan Federal University, Candidate of Psychological Sciences, Honored Worker of Culture of the Republic of Tatarstan

Ramil Garifullin

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